An index of published judgments, not a measurement. It aggregates named forecasts from the Tier A ledger, then applies a documented news rubric. Live markets are a later slot and are not in this snapshot. Read the method →
Annex A-C6 incident codebook is in force from v1.1. Mechanical triggers, all UNMET in this snapshot: binding compute/training-run caps covering a majority of frontier compute (D-GOV-TREATY); 365 days without a scored S2+ incident (D-INC-CLEAR); an independently replicated safety/interpretability result (D-INT-REPL); a documented pause or restored human-in-loop on a named critical class (D-DEP-PAUSE).
| Gauge | Value | Band | Trend | Since last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 · Catastrophe ≥10% of humanity or civilizational collapse | 10.0% | 3.57 – 11.0IQR, n=5 | 0.0 ptno material change vs v1.0 | Headline | |
| G2 · Extinction Literal human extinction / FRI <5,000 | 1.69%unweighted midpoint | 0.38% and 3.0%both published points; no IQR | 0.0 ptno material change vs v1.0 | Thin panel | |
| G3 · Deployment cascade Premature deployment into critical systems compounding faster than oversight catches it | n = 0 | —not an aggregate | — | Constructed |
Premature deployment of insufficiently-verified AI into critical systems (grid, military command, health, finance, logistics), producing compounding failures that neither market nor regulator catches in time. Collapse-shaped, not extinction-shaped by necessity.
No row in the Tier A ledger is a published forecast of this event. Factors below are qualitative indicators, not a probability. C2 and C7 instrument the same thesis as conditions; at genesis those event lists are empty.
| Date | Source | As stated | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-27 | Geoffrey HintonA-HINT-2024 · G2 · interval | 10–20% | ~30 years |
| 2026-09-09 | Evan HubingerA-HUB-2026 · G2 · bound | >10% | 10 years from Sep 2026 |
| Date | Event | Rubric category | Effect on G1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | On 2026-04-15, MITRE published CVE-2026-40261, describing command injection in Composer's Perforce source handling through crafted package metadata.EVT-2026-04-15-CVE-2026-40261 · MITRE CVE: CVE-2026-40261The April 15 CVE publication is inside the 2020-01-01 through 2026-09-15 reference window. Independently, Composer is general-purpose infrastructure and the record does not implicate an AI system's behavior in harm. | NO CATEGORY · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 0 places the April disclosure inside the reference window; Gate 1 also fails because a vulnerability disclosure is not an incident and no AI system is implicated. Severity not determined. Annex Appendix A.3; W-2, W-3; §A.3.3; CS-6 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-02 | On 2026-10-02, WIRED reported nurse allegations that HCA Healthcare's Palantir-co-developed Timpani scheduling tool produced understaffed or imbalanced care teams.EVT-2026-10-02-HCA-TIMPANI · WIRED: AI Is Making a Mess of Nurses' Schedules. They Say It's a Safety IssueThe Monitor summary and reporting do not assemble the primaries required to establish occurrence, AI implication, HP-1, or HP-5 at the S2+ confirmation standard. The reported concerns remain allegations, not a severity determination. | C6 · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 0 occurrence date unverified; Gate 2 fails E1 on the assembled record. Severity not determined. Annex Appendix A.1; W-2, W-4; CB-1, CS-3 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-03 | On 2026-10-03, The Aviationist reported Northrop Grumman's announcement that the YFQ-48 Talon Blue completed its first fully autonomous flight, including taxi, takeoff, maneuvers, and landing.EVT-2026-10-03-YFQ-48A · The Aviationist: Northrop Grumman's YFQ-48 Flies for the First TimeThe report documents a flight test. It does not document an incident or adoption into military command with the verification/liability gap required for a C2 step. | C2 · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails: the source reports a successful test flight, not harm, failure, or a near-miss. Severity not determined; C2 adoption threshold not established. Annex Appendix A.2; W-3; Methodology §12.5 C2 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-05 | On 2026-10-05, Diplo reported North Korea's 2026-10-03 missile test and Kim Yo Jong's claim of AI capabilities and low-altitude trajectory changes.EVT-2026-10-03-DPRK-MISSILE · Diplo: North Korea tests intermediate-range missile it says uses AIThe fetched report identifies the October 3 launch as an intermediate-range ballistic-missile test and separately mentions a September 20 hypersonic test. It documents no incident, adoption, or measured human-out-of-loop share. | C2 · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails: the source reports a weapons test, not a harm or failure event. Severity not determined; C2/C7 thresholds not established. Annex Appendix A.2; W-3; Methodology §12.5 C2/C7 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-06 | On 2026-10-06, Breaker said it had integrated its tactical orchestration agent with Rheinmetall for the Australian Boxer and demonstrated a crew member commanding a drone swarm by voice.EVT-2026-10-06-AUS-BOXER · Breaker Industries: Rheinmetall and Breaker bring voice-controlled tactical orchestration to the BoxerThe first-party announcement documents integration and a demonstration, not an incident or the category thresholds. The fetched page does not state the Appendix A candidate's 'up to 100 drones' figure, so that figure is not published here. | C2 · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails: integration and demonstration, with no incident reported. Severity not determined; C2/C7 thresholds not established. Annex Appendix A.2; W-3; Methodology §12.5 C2/C7 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-12 | On 2026-10-12, NPR reported that Russia and Ukraine were using AI-powered drones on the battlefield.EVT-2026-10-12-RUSSIA-DRONES · NPR: Both Russia and Ukraine are using AI-powered drones on the battlefieldThe report's detailed autonomous-navigation and target-selection example concerns a Ukrainian system. It does not substantiate the candidate's stronger Russia-specific neural-network and human-out-of-loop wording. Intended lethal use is annotated under provisional RD-7; a future malfunction- or misidentification-caused death would require a new HP-1 determination. | C2 · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails as documented: deployment reporting, not a specific harm or failure event. Severity not determined; C2/C7 thresholds not established. Annex Appendix A.2; W-3; RD-7; Methodology §12.5 C2/C7 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-14 | On 2026-10-14, Army Recognition reported that Flying Wedge Defence & Aerospace unveiled a full-scale static FWD Supreme prototype in New Delhi on 2026-10-13.EVT-2026-10-13-INDIA-FWD · Army Recognition: India unveils first AI-driven fighter drone FWD Supreme for long-range strikes and fighter escortThe source describes a static prototype and reports no government contract or funding. The event date is October 13 and the article publication date is October 14; the Appendix A table's October 11 date is not used. | C2 · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails: a prototype unveiling is not an incident. Severity not determined; C2 adoption threshold fails on the reported facts. Annex Appendix A.2; W-3; E4; Methodology §12.5 C2 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-21 | On 2026-10-21, MITRE published CVE-2026-109618, describing a PHP out-of-memory request-memory condition that can lead to remote code execution.EVT-2026-10-21-CVE-2026-109618 · MITRE CVE: CVE-2026-109618PHP is general-purpose web infrastructure. The record describes a vulnerability, not exploitation producing harm or an AI system's own harmful operational action. | NO CATEGORY · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails twice: a vulnerability disclosure is not an incident, and no AI system is implicated. Severity not determined. Annex Appendix A.3; §A.3.3; W-3; CS-6 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-21 | On 2026-10-21, MITRE published CVE-2026-109619, describing PHP global state that can retain stale request-memory pointers and produce remote code execution.EVT-2026-10-21-CVE-2026-109619 · MITRE CVE: CVE-2026-109619PHP is general-purpose web infrastructure. The record describes a vulnerability, not exploitation producing harm or an AI system's own harmful operational action. | NO CATEGORY · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails twice: a vulnerability disclosure is not an incident, and no AI system is implicated. Severity not determined. Annex Appendix A.3; §A.3.3; W-3; CS-6 | 0.0 pt |
| 2026-10-21 | On 2026-10-21, Railway disclosed that an unauthorized third party may have accessed encrypted customer environment variables and obtained decrypted contents for some; the variables could contain API keys and other credentials.EVT-2026-10-21-RAILWAY · Railway: Security Disclosure: Wednesday October 21stThe implicated system is hosting-platform secrets storage. AI-provider credentials are targets' assets, not AI systems acting in the harm chain. No C6 category or INC-CLOCK effect follows. | NO CATEGORY · R-NULLNon-scoring. Gate 1 fails CS-6: no AI system's development, use, or malfunction is documented in the harm chain. Severity not determined. Annex Appendix A.3; W-3; CS-6 | 0.0 pt |
| Category | Position in range | Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Capability leaps | 1.00 | |
| Sensitive-systems deployment | 1.00 | |
| Governance & liability | 1.00 | |
| Safety & interpretability research | 1.00 | |
| Racing dynamics | 1.00 | |
| Incident record | 1.00 | |
| Autonomy dependency | 1.00 |
The aggregate is computed from named, dated, cited forecasts — never from vibes. Only a primary numeric utterance scores. Surveys (current wave) and the XPT family share class weight 3.0; structured analyses 2.0; named statements 1.0 and, in this snapshot, none of them meet the 2100 horizon rule. Outliers stay on the ledger even when they do not score. Conflicts of interest are labeled in both directions. Leave-one-out: A-XPT-SF → 10.0%, A-CARL-2022 → 10.0%, A-AII-2024 → 7.5%, A-ORD-2020 → 10.0%, A-XPT-DE → 10.0%.
| Tier A source | Disposition | Receipt |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Carlsmith, Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?A-CARL-2022 | Scores G1-2100. | Primary source |
| AI Impacts 2023 Expert Survey (~2,778 ML researchers)A-AII-2023 | Prior FAM-AII wave; substitute-wave sensitivity only [SJ-FAM]. | Primary source |
| XPT superforecasters (Karger et al., FRI)A-XPT-SF | Scores G1-2100 and G2-2100. | Primary source |
| XPT domain experts (Karger et al., FRI)A-XPT-DE | Scores G1-2100 and G2-2100. | Primary source |
| Toby Ord, The Precipice (2020)A-ORD-2020 | Scores G1-2100. | Source ledger entry |
| Geoffrey HintonA-HINT-2024 | H-near: shown on the near-term panel, excluded from 2100 mixtures [SJ-HORIZON]. | Primary source |
| Yoshua BengioA-BENG-2023 | H-unspecified: ledger only for 2100 gauges [SJ-HORIZON]. | Primary source |
| Yann LeCunA-LECUN-2023 | Third-party conversion, not a primary numeric utterance. | Primary source |
| Eliezer YudkowskyA-YUD | UNVERIFIED high percentage without a pinned primary quote. | Primary source |
| Evan HubingerA-HUB-2026 | H-near: shown on the near-term panel, excluded from 2100 mixtures [SJ-HORIZON]. | Primary source |
| AI Impacts 2024 Expert Survey (1,580 researchers)A-AII-2024 | Scores G1-2100. | Primary source |
Tier A on the record: Ord, The Precipice (2020) · Carlsmith (2022) · AI Impacts 2024 (mixture) / 2023 (substitute-wave only) · XPT superforecasters and domain experts (FRI) · named near-term: Hinton 10–20%, Hubinger >10% · Bengio (no horizon) · LeCun (paraphrase, excluded) · Yudkowsky (UNVERIFIED, excluded). Tier B Metaculus/markets: out of the v1 mixture (unverified). Full receipts → source ledger · snapshot note